長和加倉策略

I have been eyeing on 001 for a while as a lot of bloggers have brought it up.

Background

http://happyvalleyjockey.blogspot.com/2019/01/blog-post.html

Credits to : 快活谷小子財自之路
PV= D/(r-g) = 3.18/(2.93% - 0%) 再一次保守D, 無計GROWTH OF DIVIDEND

PV= 109.99

打個75折, 75.X


https://econearth.blogspot.com/2016/10/001.html
Credits to: 不倒翁

截至2016年10月12日為止，長和的收市價是$96.1一股。在公司的會計制度上此股的價值大約是$102一股。但如果以現實的價格將所有資產賣出，然後套現，我相信每一股的價值應該在$150以上。此股今年最低跌至$80.6，最高為$109.5。如果能夠在＄90邊緣逐步買入此股，回報率將會是很不錯的。


這間公司的最大隱憂是世界環境的變化，為這公司的業務已經不再是在香港，而是在全球。如果環球有任何不利消息傳出，都會直接影響它的股價。例如中國政治不穩，英國脫歐，美國加息等等，都有可能令到此股價出現異常波動。我建議讀者們在$85的時候買入，到$105的時候才出售，此股有2.65％的股息收，好過放在銀行。

Current Status 

1. Pounds is at really low level at 9.91 HKD to 1 Pound 

2. Senior Management has been repurchasing it on 74.4 meaning that they have confidence in the company at this level

3. Currently Yield has around 4.3% with CAGR of 5% (conservative estimation)

4. Stock Price about 74.1 at the moment 

Personal Take

1. Very good starting yield - relatively safe price as the only time it reaches 73 is at the bottom of the trade war - sufficient to cover the borrowing cost if borrowed from private bank 

2. Good stock to pick because it has a high margin rate ~ 70% 

Current Plan

1. Built 7k 001 position at around 76 dollars 

2. Want to build total position of 30k 001 around 70 dollars if possible. 

If drop to 

72 - 5000 stocks

71 - 5000 stocks

70 - 10000 stocks

In my next post, I will talk more how I plan to leverage my relative's private bank to leverage with relatively safe margin.